US-China Security Competition in South Asia: Repercussions for the Regional Security Dynamics

Abstract

As the US and China’s strategic rivalry intensifies, the security and economic landscape of South Asia, a region important to both powers’ long-term interests, is being transformed. As the world is going towards multi-polarity, the deteriorating US–China relations have created conditions that resemble a power transition in the twenty-first century. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the US-backed Quad are also shaping these strategic calculations, regional alignments, and policymaking. South Asian states will have to adjust their foreign policies by either balancing or bandwagoning to take advantage of economic opportunities and security partnerships while minimizing over-dependence on either great power. This contest will have major consequences in the region. The competition offers potential economic and strategic advantages but also entails risks of polarization, destabilization, and strategic uncertainty. To understand these pertinent issues, this paper addresses the following questions: How is the US-China strategic rivalry redefining the security structure in South Asia? What are the security and economic impacts of this contention on the South Asian states? And what policy alternatives can regional actors have to deal with the great-power competition and retain strategic independence and regional stability?