Russia’s Strategic Posture in the Black Sea: Naval Modernization, Regional Influence and Security Consequences

Abstract

The black sea constitutes a strategically critical region for Moscow, serving both as a vital trade hub and as a gateway between Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. This paper examines Russia’s dynamic posture in the Black Sea and its implications on regional security dynamics, particularly in light of the growing naval presence. This research adopts a qualitative research method based on secondary data such as academic literature, government documents and media sources. The study employs Regional Security Complex Theory to elaborate regional security implications and the sovereignty concerns of neighboring states, compelling them to increase their military presence for their own security and hence intensifying the security dilemma. Moscow has cultivated frozen conflicts, such as those in Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and now eastern Ukraine, as instruments of influence that weaken neighboring states and limit Western integration. These strategies intensified the regional security dilemma, compelling littoral states to expand their military posture. Beyond the region, they carry global repercussions, from straining NATO-Russia relations to destabilizing energy markets and reshaping Eurasian power alignments. These postures have reignited the Novorossiya concept, rooted in 18th-century Russian imperial expansion and serving as a justification for intervention in Ukraine.